Revenge of the Fallen

Ivan Safronov

Well, more like Return of the Retired, or Dawn of the Dismissed, or whatever.  Your attention’s been grabbed (hopefully).

Last Thursday, Kommersant’s Ivan Safronov reported the Defense Ministry will bring 4,011 ex-general officers back as civilian advisers and consultants, primarily in military districts (unified strategic commands — OSKs) and large operational-tactical formations (armies).  The idea, apparently, is for today’s top commanders to benefit from the experience of their predecessors.

Safronov’s report is based on claims from a source in Defense Minister Serdyukov’s apparat, his immediate staff.  The plan to deploy retired generals as advisers got Serdyukov’s approval on January 20.

The former higher officers will also work as scientific associates in VVUZy and in military commissariats.

Kommersant’s source said these men generally have advanced education and a wealth of combat troop and administrative experience to share with today’s commanders.

Safronov turns to Vitaliy Tsymbal to describe how deploying a huge number of ex-generals contradicts earlier Defense Ministry policy:

“There’s no particular logic evident in this, many now retired generals are already remote from military affairs.  This is a sufficiently magnanimous gesture on the part of the minister, but it doesn’t have some kind of deeper sense in it.  Earlier nothing stopped him from dismissing the very same generals for various reasons.”

According to Safronov’s source, it remains only to determine what to pay the returning generals. 

Who knows if any of this will actually happen?  But if it does, it’s another walk back on a key plank of military reform.  Remember the walk back on keeping 220,000 rather than only 150,000 officers?

In late 2009, General Staff Chief Nikolay Makarov said the Defense Ministry had cut 420 of 1,200 generals in the Armed Forces.  With current manning, the remaining 780 generals are enough for a relatively high 1-to-1,000 ratio to other personnel.  So they’ll be digging deep for 4,011 former generals.  Who and what will they find?  

In late 2010, Makarov almost bragged about cutting useless, superannuated officers:

“During this time [before 2009], we grew an entire generation of officers and generals who ceased to understand the very essence of military service, they didn’t have experience in training and educating personnel.”

However, those officers and generals saw it differently, for example:

“Ill-conceived reform has left the Russian Army without a central combat training methodology – that is, now no one knows what and how we teach soldiers and officers on the battlefield.”

So either Serdyukov’s shift to a new, younger, and more junior generation of military leaders isn’t working out, or there’s some other reason for bringing the older dudes back.  One obvious possibility would be to keep them from being openly and publicly critical of Putin’s regime and Serdyukov’s Defense Ministry on the eve of the presidential election.  Maybe some can be bought for a small supplement to their pensions.  A couple things are more certain.  If the old generals arrive, their former subordinates — now in charge — probably won’t like having them around.  The old guys probably won’t enjoy it much either.  And the whole scheme may not even get off the ground, or last very long if it does.

Cadre Changes

RIA Novosti noted yesterday the new 58th Army Commander is General-Major Andrey Gurulev.  Gurulev was previously its chief of staff.  His boss, General-Major Andrey Kartapolov also moved up to be Deputy Commander, Southern MD.

Krasnaya zvezda published a personnel decree from January 20 that somehow managed to slip past.  It included the following changes.

Relieve of duty:

• Colonel Oleg Viktorovich Averin, Chief, Missile-Artillery Armament Service, Western MD.
• Colonel Vyacheslav Nikolayevich Gurov, Commander, 6th Independent Tank Brigade, 20th Army.

Appoint:

• Lieutenant Colonel Mikhail Vladimirovich Yerofeyev, Chief, Missile-Artillery Armament Service, Western MD.
• Colonel Andrey Vladimirovich Lipikhin, Commander, 6th Air Defense Brigade.
• Colonel Vladimir Pavlovich Omelyanovich, Commander, 6th Independent Tank Brigade, 20th Army.

Dismiss:

• General-Lieutenant Khamit Iskarovich Kamalov.

No One to Call (Part I)

Shaved and Ready to Serve (photo: Yelena Fazliullina / Nezavisimaya gazeta)

“We could call-up 11.7% of all young men.  Of them, 60% got out on health grounds.  Therefore, the RF Defense Ministry confronts the fact that there is almost no one to call-up into the RF Armed Forces.”

Army General Nikolay Makarov

So the General Staff Chief declared on November 11, 2011, and he’s been quoted to this effect many times since. 

Just nine months earlier, the Defense Ministry declared professional contract service would be the primary method of manning the Armed Forces.  And a year before that, the Defense Minister and General Staff Chief said the exact opposite:  conscription would be primary and contract service would be curtailed.  

But the impossibility of manning a million-man Russian Army by means of the draft was clearly understood by many observers at that time.

The Defense Ministry recently issued its customary press-release indicating 100-percent fulfillment of the fall draft campaign.  

Only 135,850 young men were conscripted for one year of obligatory military service.  This was about 80,000 fewer than the number inducted during the spring draft (218,720), and less than half the fall 2010 call-up (280,000). 

This fall’s 135,850 twelve-month soldiers are just about the same number of men typically drafted for a two-year service term in the mid-2000s.

Viktor Baranets published his archive of annual conscription numbers back to 1999, which is handy.  He makes the point that, in contrast to today’s 12 percent or less, 20 percent of available men were being drafted as late as the late 1990s.

Let’s suppose if Makarov’s 12 percent go to serve and 60 percent are excused for health reasons, then 28 percent are escaping through deferments (mostly educational) or evasion. 

Makarov’s precise 11.7 percent or 135,850 conscripts would mean his total draft pool was under 1.2 million men.  This seems odd because census numbers say Russia should have at least two million 18- and 19-year-old men right now.  And that’s not even mentioning some 21- or 22-year-olds who get caught in the commissar’s dragnet. 

There might be some math your author can’t fathom, but it could also be that the widely-reported number of 200,000 long-term draft (or draft summons) evaders is actually much, much higher.

Let’s look at a fairly detailed report on conscription in one oblast — Sverdlovsk.  Nakanune.ru reports the oblast’s military commissar sent out 25,000 draft notices to the region’s youth. 

Almost half were unfit for health reasons, leaving, let’s suppose, 13,000 young men to sort through.  But this, of course, means Sverdlovsk’s a lot healthier place than many places.

Of those 13,000, some 6,000 had deferments.  So we’re down to 7,000 candidate-soldiers.  Of them, 4,056 were inducted this fall. 

That’s a deferment rate of 24 percent for all men summoned to the draft board.  And 4,056 is 16 percent of those summoned.  The MVD got 700 men (3 percent), and the Armed Forces presumably got 3,356 (13 percent).

Now unmentioned are the 2,944 not deferred and not drafted.  Who knows how they might be counted.  But they might be guys evading the draft by simply going missing.  For those keeping score, that could be an 11.7 percent evasion rate.  Just as many dudes avoiding service as going to serve this fall.

Cadre Changes

President Medvedev’s military personnel decree from December 22.  

Recall that Colonel Yartsev is being investigated for “taxing” the premium pay his pilots were receiving.

Appoint:

• Colonel Dmitriy Vilorovich Gorbatenko, Chief, Troop Training Directorate,  Western MD.
• Captain 1st Rank Oleg Vladimirovich Zhuravlev, Commander, Leningrad Naval Base, Baltic Fleet.

Relieve:

• Colonel of Medical Service Aleksey Eduardovich Nikitin, Chief, 2nd Directorate, Deputy Chief, Main Military-Medical Directorate, RF Defense Ministry.
• Colonel Nikolay Nikolayevich Yartsev, Chief, Air Forces Training-Scientific Center “Air Forces Academy Named for Professor N. Ye. Zhukovskiy and Yu. A. Gagarin” Branch (Syzran, Samara Oblast).

Relieve and dismiss:

• Vice-Admiral Sergey Ivanovich Menyaylo, Deputy Commander, Black Sea Fleet.

Dismiss:

• General-Major Bagir Yusif ogly Fatullayev.

Cadre Changes

President Medvedev’s December 8 decree . . . some appointments in VVKO.

Appoint:

• Colonel Viktor Musavirovich Afzalov, Commander, 4th Air Defense Brigade, relieved as Commander, 4th Aerospace Defense Brigade.
• General-Lieutenant Valeriy Aleksandrovich Bratishchenko, Deputy Commander, Air and Missile Defense Command, relieved as Deputy Commander, Operational-Strategic Command of Aerospace Defense.
• Colonel Andrey Gennadyevich Demin, Chief of Staff, First Deputy Commander, Air and Missile Defense Command, relieved as Commander, 1st Aerospace Defense Brigade, 1st Air Forces and Air Defense Command.
• Colonel Andrey Vasilyevich Ilin, Chief, 153rd Main Space Test Center.
• Colonel Anatoliy Nikolayevich Nestechuk, Deputy Commander, Space Command.

Relieve:

• General-Major Aleksandr Ivanovich Afinogentov, Chief of Staff, First Deputy Commander, Long-Range Aviation.

VKO Cadre Changes

Didn’t have to wait long for this.  This morning President Medvedev signed out the ukaz with appointments to command positions in the VKO Troops (VVKO).

Kommersant’s source was mostly, but not completely, right.  Valeriy Ivanov will be chief of staff, and Sergey Popov, the chief of air defense for the Air Forces, will move to VVKO to command its Air and Missile Defense Command.

Appoint:

• General-Lieutenant Valeriy Mikhaylovich Ivanov, Chief of Staff, First Deputy Commander, Troops of Aerospace Defense, relieved as Commander, Operational-Strategic Command of Aerospace Defense.
• General-Lieutenant Sergey Aleksandrovich Lobov, Deputy Commander, Troops of Aerospace Defense, relieved as Deputy Commander, Space Troops.
• General-Major Oleg Vladimirovich Maydanovich, Commander, Space Command, relieved as Chief, 153rd Main Test Center for Testing and Control of Space Systems.
• Colonel Konstantin Aleksandrovich Ogiyenko, Commander, 5th Air Defense Brigade.
• General-Lieutenant Oleg Nikolayevich Ostapenko, Commander, Troops of Aerospace Defense, relieved as Commander, Space Troops.
• General-Major Sergey Vladimirovich Popov, Commander, Air and Missile Defense Command, relieved as Chief, Air Defense, Deputy CINC of the Air Forces for Air Defense.

There you have it.  What looks like it will be a new service — VVKO — is born, and an old branch — KV — apparently will go away.  More presidential paperwork on that is likely forthcoming.  But today we’ve learned who’s in VVKO’s head shed, and that its two major components will be, not surprisingly, the Space Command and Air and Missile Defense Command.

Team VKO Taking Shape

Team VKO is taking shape according to Kommersant.  Last fall, President Medvedev, of course, ordered the establishment of a unified VKO.  Since then, it’s become clear that Space Troops (KV) Commander, General-Lieutenant Oleg Ostapenko would head it.

And KV will be the base for the new service [vid or вид].  According to the Genshtab plan, VKO will unite all PVO and PRO systems.  And it will control the current KV, Moscow-based OSK VKO, and PVO units from the Air Forces.

The paper’s Defense Ministry source says VKO’s top officers have been identified, and paperwork was sent for Medvedev’s signature last month.  So expect a decree soon.

General-Lieutenant Valeriy Ivanov will be in charge of PVO and PRO for VKO.  He’s a 50-year-old career SAM officer, who commanded PVO divisions or corps in the Far East, Volga, and Moscow MDs.  From 2007-10, he commanded the Far East’s 11th AVVSPVO.  He became commander of the OSK VKO about this time last year.

General-Major Oleg Maydanovich is a 47-year-old KV missile engineer who will head VKO’s space monitoring.  He has long service at Plesetsk and Baykonur, and has been chief of both.  He’s now chief of Russia’s space systems testing and control center.

Colonel Andrey Ilin will be chief of the VKO’s command and control post at Krasnoznamensk.  He served many years at the space tracking post in Shchelkovo.  He’s been chief of staff at Plesetsk since last year.

Cadre Changes

President Medvedev’s decree yesterday dismissed Russia’s senior military representative to NATO, Army General Aleksey Maslov, who was once Ground Troops CINC.  Fifty-eight-year-old Maslov leaves a little early for a four-star general.  No word on whether he requested to retire.  At any rate, other generals might be shuffled about to fill the NATO milrep spot, or it might be gapped for a time.

But on to the decree.

Appoint:

• Captain 1st Rank Igor Valentinovich Grachev, Chief, Missile-Artillery Armaments Directorate, Northern Fleet.
• Colonel Sergey Semenovich Nyrkov, Commander, 9th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade.

Relieve:

• Colonel Sergey Faatovich Akhmetshin, Deputy Chief, Main Staff, Air Forces.
• Colonel Dmitriy Valeryevich Laptev, Commander, 9th Aerospace Defense Brigade.

Relieve and dismiss from military service:

• Rear-Admiral Yuriy Prokopyevich Yeremin, Chief, Navy Military Training-Scientific Center “Naval Academy” (1st Branch, St. Petersburg).
• General-Major Aleksandr Viktorovich Shapekin, Chief of Staff, First Deputy Commander, Operational-Strategic Command of Aerospace Defense.

Dismiss from military service:

• Army General Aleksey Fedorovich Maslov.

Cadre Changes

In yesterday’s decree, President Medvedev retired General-Lieutenant Sadofyev, Deputy CINC of the Air Forces and Aviation Chief.  As you’ve read, he was sometimes the service’s spokesman, especially on modernization issues.  Sadofyev turned 55 (normal age limit for two-stars) in January.  At one time,  he looked like a candidate to replace Air Forces CINC, General-Colonel Zelin, who continues to serve. 

Medvedev made General-Major Vladimir Gradusov Deputy CINC of the Air Forces.  He wasn’t given the Aviation Chief title to replace Sadofyev directly.  But he has the background for it.

General-Major Gradusov

As the decree said, Gradusov comes from the 185th Combat Training and Combat Employment Center in Ashuluk.  Krasnaya zvezda recently profiled him. 

He’s 53 (maybe 52).  Native of Moscow Oblast.  Trained at the Kharkov Higher Military Aviation School for Pilots.  Served as pilot-instructor at Kharkov.  Commanded the training squadron at the Krasnodar Higher Aviation School,  training foreign students on the L-39 and MiG-21. 

He’s commanded fighter regiments, and served in the former Kiev, North Caucasus, Transbaykal, and Siberian MDs.  In 2003, he left the post of aviation chief of the Siberian MD’s air and air defense army for the training center job in Ashuluk. 

He’s mastered the L-29, L-39, MiG-21 (all mods), MiG-29, MiG-31, and An-26.  Apparently not a Sukhoy guy.  KZ notes without elaboration that Gradusov has been in combat.

But on with the decree . . .

Appoint:

• Colonel Andrey Mikhaylovich Bulyga, Chief, Material-Technical Support Planning and Coordination Directorate, Central MD.
• General-Major Vladimir Yuryevich Gradusov, Deputy CINC, Air Forces, relieved as Chief, 185th Combat Training and Combat Employment Center.
• Lieutenant Colonel Andrey Borisovich Yefimov, Chief, Missile-Artillery Armament Service, Southern MD.
• General-Major Fraiz Fazlyakhmetovich Salyyev, Chief, Technical Support Directorate, Central MD, relieved as Chief, Technical Support Directorate, Southern MD.
• Colonel Mikhail Anatolyevich Khvostenkov, Chief, Missile-Artillery Armament Service, Eastern MD.

Relieve and dismiss from military service:

• Rear-Admiral Vitaliy Nikolayevich Ivanov, Chief of Fleet Communications, Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications, Pacific Fleet.
• General-Lieutenant Igor Vasilyevich Sadofyev, Chief of Aviation, Deputy CINC of the Air Forces for Aviation.

Cadre Changes

This is President Medvedev’s decree from Monday which has the swap of General-Lieutenant Zarudnitskiy for Tretyak as Chief of the GOU.

Relieve:

• General-Major Valeriy Leonidovich Shemyakin, Deputy Commander, Military-Transport Aviation.

Relieve and dismiss from military service:

• General-Major Yevgeniy Anatolyevich Derbin, Deputy Chief, State Administration and National Security Faculty, RF Armed Forces Military Academy of the General Staff.
• General-Lieutenant Andrey Vitalyevich Tretyak, Chief, Main Operations Directorate, RF Armed Forces General Staff — Deputy Chief, RF Armed Forces General Staff.

Appoint:

• Colonel Dmitriy Anatolyevich Voloshin, Chief, Combat Training, Long-Range, Military-Transport and Special Aviation, Chief Inspector-Pilot.
• General-Lieutenant Vladimir Borisovich Zarudnitskiy, Chief, Main Operations Directorate, RF Armed Forces General Staff, Deputy Chief, RF Armed Forces General Staff, relieved as Deputy Commander, Southern MD.